Need to Know / Latin America

Halt

2006-10-07T22:48:00.000-04:00

Need to put the blog on a halt for an indefinite period.

Fresh Survey Numbers from Venezuela

2006-09-17T11:06:00.000-04:00

A survey by PS&B Associates gives Hugo Chavez a vote intention of 50% against 37% for main contender Manuel Rosales.

However, similar research conducted by local firms IVAD and Datanalisis give Chavez a vote intention of 76.9 and 58.2% respectively.

Distance between Chavez and his contender is reducing but not to the level needed by Rosales. Elections are scheduled for December.

Who will yell louder, AMLO or Fox?

2006-09-14T23:17:00.000-04:00

President Fox will not lead Mexico’s Independence Day ceremony from the traditional setting of El Zocalo square, in Mexico City. Instead, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the leftist presidential candidate who hasn’t accepted the formal results of the recent electoral process will perform his own “Grito de Dolores” ceremony at El Zocalo.

The Senate asked Fox to move the ceremony out of El Zocalo to avoid violence. This will likely make look the executive weak and might inject badly needed momentum to AMLO’s resistance. It will all depend on the media coverage and the way both leaders and president elect Calderon, spin the events.

The ceremony is scheduled for September 15. Fox will have his at Dolores Hidalgo, Guanajuato.

Ahmadinejad Goes to Caracas

2006-09-11T19:06:00.000-04:00

The Iran-Venezuela alliance is getting stronger.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is steping in Caracas and Habana next week, on his way to New York to attend a United Nations General Assembly.

The visit will generate plenty of media coverage amid rumors of a Venezuela-Iran nuclear alliance. It will also work marvels for Hugo Chavez’s presidential campaign, which is full of Anti-American rhetoric.

Ahmadinejad may even surprise us with another Granma photo op having a great time at the hospital with Fidel.

Venezuela Extracts Uranium, Says Colombian Ambassador

2006-09-11T00:22:00.000-04:00

Camilo Ospina is not a career diplomat. Whether this was a slip of the tongue or an intentional accusation, get ready for a new series of rebuttals and reactions. If proven, these allegations will radically change regional dynamics.

Colombia’s OAS Ambassador, Camilo Ospina, accused Venezuela of having an undercover operation to extract uranium. El Universal from Venezuela and El Nuevo Herald from Miami carry the story. Here goes a quick translation of Ospina’s comments as published by these outlets:

“You just have to go in direction to the Arauca, some 400 kilometers, to find two factories, a bicycle factory, and a motorcycle factory. These two factories are a façade to excavate uranium” … “Venezuela can’t enrich uranium, but Iran can. If this happens we will have a real problem.”

Speculation about a secret Venezuelan operation to provide Iran with uranium has been rampant. This is however the first time that a high level officer from any country makes a direct accusation.

Expect a loud rebuttal from the Venezuelan governement. Chavez himself may comment on this. This is a great oportunity for him to play his beloved anti yankee role.

Brazil Buys 12 Mirage Fighthers

2006-08-31T23:59:00.000-04:00

Brazil will buy 12 used Mirage 2000 aircrafts from the French army for US$100m. A modest investment if compared with the recent acquisitions made by the air forces of neighboring countries Chile and Venezuela, that just acquired fleets of 10 F-16 Block 50 and 24 Su-30MKII fighters respectively.

The first two Mirages will arrive to Brazil on time for the independence day parade on September the 7th. Military analysts consider the Mirage fleet obsolete and think that Brazil is losing air power to Chile and Venezuela.

Venezuela To Build Two Military Facilities in Bolivia

2006-08-31T23:31:00.000-04:00

Venezuela pledged to fund and supervise the construction of at least two Bolivian military facilities as a part of a defense agreement. The direct Venezuelan investment will be of at least US$ 40 million. The agreement also prevents staff support in matters of military legislation and “military armament improvements” says a an EFE cable.

The fort will be built in the Riberalta region in the Amazon jungle.

The announcement was originally made by Orlando Paniagua, Defense Vice Minister. He also made it clear: Venezuela is just helping and in no way intervening in Bolivia’s sovereignty.

As for what is Bolivia doing for Venezuela's army, well. Mr. Paniagua didn't mention that bit. Must be clasified.

Lula Is Not Like Chavez and Castro Won’t Be Absolved

2006-08-23T20:51:00.000-04:00

Lula is marking distance from his Venezuelan and Cuban colleagues. With the
presidential elections scheduled for October, he wants to avoid the “Chavez
factor” and position himself as a centrist. The strategy is working. A
recent survey by Dalafolha gives the incumbent candidate a 49% of vote intention versus 25% for conservative candidate Geraldo Alckmin.

Here goes Lula’s quote taken from O Globo and
translated by Venezuela’s El Universal:

“They do not know what to fabricate and here they go with that story of Chavezism. I will not engage in any Chavezism; firstly, because I am not Chávez, and secondly, because this country is not Venezuela. This is a country with traditional institutions”.

O Globo also quoted Lula paraphrasing the famous Castro quote: “History won’t absolve Castro”.

I Am Taking a Break

2006-08-03T23:02:00.000-04:00

Planning to be back by August the 20th.

Kirchner’s Popularity at 75%

2006-07-31T20:38:00.000-04:00

Infobae newspaper reports a recent survey produced by four Argentine firms: Analogías, CEOP, Hugo Haime and OPSN, showing President Kirchner with a staggering approval level of 75%.

The survey also shows Kirchner wining the presidential elections in the first round with 60% of votes. In the event of an unlikely run-off Kirchner would beat Cristina Fernández with 59,8% of votes.

Presidential elections are scheduled for October 27 2007.

FARC Offer Support to Chavez

2006-07-24T21:56:00.000-04:00

Once again Colombian guerrillas made public their total support to Chavez in the event of a US invasion. This solidarity gesture was communicated in a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) message praising Venezuela’s Communist Party for its XII Congress.

“Your role [Venezuela’s Communist Party ] in driving the process led by the Commandant Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias, in this era in which a new revolutionary wage rises in our America, is huge.”… “Count on us if the Washington hawks wage an invasion war against the brave people of Venezuela, which is the hope of America and its revolution,” says the apologetic communiqué.

Heralding a US invasion to Venezuela is just a way for the FARC to justify its existence in a world where Evo Morales and Hugo Chavez got to power via electoral processes. Everyone knows that. What amazes me is that some people take seriously the prospect of the US invasion knowing that:

-After the Irak mess the US couldn’t even invade Neverland.
-Venezuela is not at the top of the American international agenda (Lebanon, Irak, Iran and Korea are obviously a priority).
-Bush’s popularity is in the thirties.
-The oil price is too high to risk a war with an Opec country.

Lula’s Lead Narrows

2006-07-19T20:27:00.000-04:00

A survey produced by Vox Populi for Carta Capital
magazine shows a 10% lead for Brazil’s President Inacio Lula da Silva (Workers Party, PT) in the vote intention over conservative candidate Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social Democratic Party, PSDB). Here go the numbers:

-Lula 42% vote intention (-3% variation from June/-7% from May).
-Alckim 32% vote intention ( 0% variation from June/+9% from May).

This is the first poll not showing Lula wining in the first round. Presidential elections are scheduled for October 01. A run-off would take place on October 29. To avoid a second round a candidate needs more than 50% of votes.

Brazil Rejects Mercosur Military Bloc

2006-07-13T20:03:00.000-04:00

A report published by Correio Braziliense states that “Brazil has taken a step back in talks with neighbouring countries over the creation of a South American Defence Council”, a NATO like bloc recently proposed by Hugo Chavez.

The bloc creation is on the agenda of the ministerial meeting scheduled for this week in Bogotá, however, the Brazilian newspaper quotes a Ministry of Defense officer declaring the matter as closed and making it clear that Brazil wouldn’t join such a bloc. “We received intelligence that this 'NATO of the South' thing was being espoused by the United States, so that it could be manipulated by the latter against sub-regional threats" says Correio's source.

38% of Bolivians Support Chavez’s Intervention

2006-07-06T21:23:00.000-04:00

A recent survey by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado states that 51% of Bolivians consider that Chavez “intervenes” on national affaires. 48% rejects Chavez’s intervention whereas 38% supports it.

I would think that 38% is an unusually large figure for any foreign politician meddling in national affairs anywhere in the world.

Mercosur and Cuba Could Sign Trade Agreement

2006-07-06T21:21:00.000-04:00

Cuba and Mercosur wil sign a trade agreement at the end of July, says a Correio Braziliense report. A Cuban delegation has been working with Mercosur to “harmonize four Economic Complementation Agreements that have been in effect since the end of the 1990s between the Fidel Castro regime and the Southern Cone Partners”, states the article. This step will “facilitate the negotiation of a future free trade treaty with Cuba” and undisclosed Brazilian diplomat said to the Brazilian newspaper.

Ortega Leads Presidential Race in Nicaragua

2006-06-30T18:28:00.000-04:00

Will he also make Bush see red?

Retro-Marxist-leader Daniel Ortega is leading the polls in the Nicaraguan presidential race. Here go the numbers produced by Gallup for La Prensa newspaper:

Daniel Ortega (FSLN): 23%
Eduardo Montealegre (NLA): 17%
Herty Lewites (MRS): 15%
Others: 13%
Undecided: 32%

Ortega could avoid a run-off if he gets 35% of the vote or a five point lead and at least 30% of the votes.

The high number of undecided voters (32%) will obviously define the outcome. Expect fierce campaigning. Election day is 5 November 2006.

Evo Closer to Castro than Chavez, Says Kirchner

2006-06-30T18:27:00.000-04:00

Argentine newspaper Ambito Financiero documented a conversation between Nestor Kirchner and the Spanish king: “Evo’s phenomenon is closer to Castro than Chavez”, said Kirchner to the King Juan Carlos over lunch in Spain, during a recent presidential visit. Interesting insight from Kirchner about his political allies.

Chavez Buys Russian War Jets

2006-06-16T18:23:00.000-04:00

Venezuela continues its military build-up with 24 made in Russia Sukhoi (Su-30) jets, brand new. The Russian toys come with a 700 million dollar bill.

Profits are going to Russia, to State Corporation Rosoboroneksport to be more specific.

The cost per Venezuelan citizen is of 28 dollars. If we add other recent deals like building of a local Kalashnikov factory and the buying of a Russian Helicopter fleet and a couple of Spanish patrol ships, the bill gets to 3.7 billion, increasing the cost per citizen to 146 dollars. This is excluding operating and maintenance costs.

Venezuela has a minimum wage of 150 dollars.

President Chavez is not only investing heavily in weapons, he also wants the world to know it. He wastes no oportunity to set photo ops and his new pet project is no other than a massive military parade on Venezuela’s Independence Day, July the fith. Doesn't that sound familiar?

Lopez Obrador Retakes Lead

2006-06-14T21:16:00.000-04:00

With the finish line around the corner the PRD leftist candidate Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is sprinting a bit faster than Felipe Calderón, from the ruling conservative party PAN, 3% faster to be more specific. Here go the numbers produced by the latest Consulta Mitofsky survey:

Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, PRD: 35% (-1% variation from May)
Felipe Calderón, PAN: 32% (-2% variation from May)
Roberto Madrazo, PRI: 28% (No variation)

Get ready for a dramatic finale.

Ronaldo the Fat Vs. Lula the Drunk

2006-06-13T20:01:00.000-04:00

It is popular belief that wining football teams favor incumbent Governments. President Lula seems to share that superstition. Indeed, the Brazilian president staged a ritual public morale-booster speech to the Brazilian team in national TV, to “demand” they win the world cup and, why not, show his charisma by daring to ask if superstar player Ronaldo is overweight.

Football stars are larger than life in Brazil. Ronaldo in particular is a national treasure, and one with a respectable self-esteem, judging from his answer to Lula.

International media are quoting Ronaldo responding this: “It’s all a big lie that I’m overweight”…“as it must be false that Lula drinks too much.”

Wrong comment. Lula almost expulsed a New York Times journalist in 2004 for writing that he had a drinking problem.

Who Won Mexico’s Presidential Debate?

2006-06-07T20:47:00.000-04:00

The question matters, considering that the latest surveys put the two leading candidates on a technical tie.

Surveys conducted by printed media say Felipe Calderón won the final presidential debate. However, these surveys come with a spin. Most media groups in Mexico tend to support Calderon’s candidacy.

I had a chance to watch the debate and didn’t see a clear winner at all. I found Calderón slightly more convincing than López Obrador, but not to the level needed to swing PRI and undecided votes. Indeed, both leading candidates did a good job. They neutralized attacks efficiently and stuck to message. I think the debate won’t make a big difference. If anything, it will reinforce already taken decisions.

Post-debate surveys published so far follow:

Reforma newspaper, Mexico’s largest circulation broadsheet, asked four hundred people who won the final presidential debate. The results of this "4.8% error margin" survey are:

-Felipe Calderón from government party PAN: 44%.
-Luis Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)from left wing PRD party: 30%
-Roberto Madrazo from PRI party: 11%.

El Economista newspaper produced a similar survey obtaining these results:
-Calderón: 66%.
-AMLO: 19%
-Madrazo: 9%

La Crónica newspaper also got Calderó leading its survey:
-Calderón: 42%.
-AMLO: 29%.

Excelsior newspaper surveyed 300 people and asked them who would they vote for after the watching the debate. The results give a slight lead to Calderón with 37% against 32 % for AMLO.

Election day is 02 July.

Chavez Trumpets “Friendship” With Carlos the Jackal

2006-06-02T18:11:00.000-04:00

Chavez’s mate, Carlos Ramírez Ilich, has been blamed for more than 80 deaths. He was declared guilty of murder by a French court and is serving a life sentence in Paris.

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez doesn’t hide his admiration for notorious pre-Al-Qaeda-terrorist Carlos Ramírez Ilich, better known as the Jackal. In a recent speech to Opec ministers in Caracas Chavez offered a public remembrance of his buddy:

“I remember that tour [a presidential visit to Opec countries]; a good Venezuelan friend who is in Europe called it hair-raising; I am referring to Carlos Ilich Ramírez, nicknamed The Jackal” …“During those days he wrote to me from his Paris jail saying that the tour was hair-rising. I will never forget those words by Carlos”, Chavez said.

Ironically, Carlos the Jackal gained world notoriety after kidnapping 70 hostages precisely during an Opec ministerial meeting in 1975.

In March 1999, a recently inaugurated president Chavez responded to a letter by Ramirez with a delirious, apologetic text. Some fragments of Chavez’s letter taken from a Harper Magazine translation follow:

“Citizen Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, Distinguished Compatriot,

Swimming in the depths of your letter of solidarity I could hear the pulse of our shared insight that everything has its due time.”

“Our liberator Simon Bolivar, whose theories and example are fundamental to our doctrine of revolution, whispered briefly this question before he passed away: “How will I find the way out of this labyrinth”?"

“With profound faith in our cause and our mission, now and forever!”

They say a man is known by the company he keeps.

Venezuela to Mass Produce Kalashnikov Rifles

2006-05-31T18:43:00.000-04:00

Venezuela is to become the first foreign country licensed to manufacture Russian AKs.

Chavez is finally moving to diversify Venezuela’s oil dependant economy and he has chosen no other than the lucrative business of arms production to do so. Or at least that is what he said during a recent press conference. This is the deal: Venezuela will partner with Russian weapons giant Rosoboronexport to manufacture its global best-seller product, the Kalishnikov rifle.

"The Russians are going to install a Kalashnikov rifle plant and a munitions factory,"…"So we can defend every street, every hill, every corner," a defiant Chavez was quoted by BBC.

AP checked with Rosoboronexport and the company “confirmed talks were ongoing, but declined to give any further details on when the plant could be constructed or what would be its production capacity”.

This arrangement is part of a deal with Rosoboronexport to acquire 100,000 AK-103 assault riffles. So far the AK production has not been licensed to a foreign country. The Kalishnikov rifle is arguably the most successful assault weapon ever to have entered the arms market; and then people dare to brand Chavez as anti-business.

Evo Morales Accuses U.S. of Assassination Attempt

2006-05-31T18:24:00.000-04:00

Uribe has survived twelve attempts but hasn't got killing paranoia.

A Bolivian Presidency website carries the following text I took the liberty to translate to English:

“Escoma. 30 May. President Evo Morales accused the U.S. of organizing teams to chase and kill him but did not achieve their objective. He pointed out that conspiracy accusations made by his colleague Hugo Chávez are “not a lie”.

The president explained that he only learned recently about these unsuccessful attempts against his life.”

It strikes me that Chavez and Morales are constantly crying “assassination attempt” but not a single attack against them has been documented, whereas President Uribe, who is not in the habit of publicizing them, has survived twelve such attempts.

PRI About to Implode

2006-05-25T22:40:00.000-04:00

The Mexican Presidential campaign is about to enter its most critical moment: The collapse of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidacy and a consequent vote stampede.

Manuel Bartell, a PRI Senator, may have started its party implosion by calling PRI followers to support leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). If Bartell’s position prevails among PRI swinging voters AMLO will regain the lead he lost a month ago.

A recent poll commissioned by El Universal national newspaper and produced the first days of May gives Felipe Calderón, from ruling conservative party PAN, a fragile 4 point advantage. These are the numbers:

-Felipe Calderón (PAN): 39%
-Andrés Manuel López Obrador(PRD): 35%
-Roberto Madrazo (PRI): 21%

Once again the future of Mexico is in the hands of the party that ruled the country for more than seventy years and established what novelist Mario Vargas Llosa famously branded as “the perfect dictatorship”.

Election day is 02 July.

Venezuela’s Coup Not Set “By” Stone

2006-05-22T18:09:00.000-04:00

It looked like Oliver Stone got a peculiar spokesperson to announce his new film venture: Hugo Chavez.

The Venezuelan president said during the last allocution of his Sunday program Aló President that Oliver Stone would join forces with British producer John Daly to film a movie about a 2002 Venezuela coup that briefly ousted him and was allegedly supported by the U.S. The information was, however, a lie.

Indeed, Oliver Stone rushed to deny Chavez's annnouncement: "Rumors that I am directing a film about the 2002 coup in Venezuela are untrue and unfounded," said the actual spokesperson of Stone.

Don't blame it on Chavez, Oliver Stone recently produced an apologetic film about his personal friend, perennial gerontocrant, Fidel Castro. It's just natural to wait anything from him.

High Oil Prices Could Trigger Caribbean Crisis

2006-05-22T18:03:00.000-04:00

High energy prices could prompt political and economic crises in Caribbean countries, particularly in those juggling with financial imbalances.

Helena Hessel, a senior analyst with Standard and Poor's is quoted in a Caribbean Media Corporation story predicting a regional political and economic fallout: “Apart from the impact on the balance of payments, in a number of countries in the Caribbean, like Grenada, Belize and Jamaica, where socio-political issues are somewhat difficult, if gasolene prices continue to rise, the impact would be negative."

From Hessel’s point of view only two countries would be spared from such a trend: Surinam and Trinidad and Tobago. They both have sound finances.

A regional crisis would strengthen even more Hugo Chavez’s influence in the Caribbean.

The Bolivian 10

2006-05-19T08:56:00.000-04:00

Evo Morales’ international policy is not random but carefully planed by a group of 10 people, states a report by Bolivian newspaper La Razón.

The team is led by Bolivia’s Vice-President Alvaro Garcia and also includes the ministers of the presidency, Juan Quintana, development, Carlos Villegas, foreign relations, David Choquehuanca, hydrocarbons, Andres Soliz as well as deputy ministers of international economic relations, Maria Luisa Ramos and governmental coordination, Hector Arce.

Movimiento Towards Socialism (MAS) leader German “Gory” Mueller is the “main operator, and the man closest to President Evo Morales’ personal entourage”.

Gory leads the “vanguard groups” with the help of Pablo Solon, who directs the Solon Foundation. Gory and Solon mainly focus on relations with European countries.

Evo Morales himself presides the group that meets before his international trips and helps setting the president’s agenda. Ministers are consulted about their areas of expertise and a “policy like and a position as chief executive” is then adopted.

Ministers interviewed by La Razon made it clear that “nothing has been left to chance" and also that “his statements have had a "clear objective" during Morales’ trips.

Morales has been accused by the Bolivian opposition of improvisation in the international front and of being manipulated by Castro and Chavez.

Brazilian Army: Chavez a “Destabilizing Element”

2006-05-16T18:33:00.000-04:00

A story published by Claudio Dantas Sequeira in Correio Brazilense states that recent military situational papers brand Hugo Chavez as an “element destabilizing the continent”. The papers allegedly describe Bolivia as a “satellite of Venezuela” and consider “peace in South America” as “uncertain”. A fragment of Dantas’s story translated by the BBC Monitoring Services follows:

“According to them [Alleged military reports], Bolivia's decision to
nationalize its gas reserves by force - without Brazil outlining any action - is encouraging the Paraguayans to ask for a revision of the energy prices set in the Treaty of Itaipu”... “Chile is reportedly also shocked by Chavez's influence over Bolivia and Peru and has held consultations with the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO), of which it is an associate.”

Ecuador Under Ripple Effect

2006-05-16T18:21:00.000-04:00

Following the footsteps of Bolivia, the Ecuadorian government canceled an operating contract with Occidental, a U.S. oil company, and took over its assets. Ecuador argued that Occidental breached its contract by transferring part of its concession to Canadian company Encana Corporation (ECA). Occidental, which has invested over a billion dollars Ecuador, denies any wrongdoing and is considering its legal options.

Ecuador is living a period of political instability. The country is negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.S. but its prospects have been badly hurt by this recent move. It recently experienced two major oil industry strikes. Presidential elections are scheduled for October

High commodity prices and a political shift to the left are boosting a regional wave of nationalizations and protectionism. Uruguay could be the next country in joining this trend by revising some of its energy export prices.

Zombies Return

2006-05-15T18:54:00.000-04:00

Alan Garcia, Daniel Ortega and Alberto Fujimori have a lot in common. They failed as presidents but nevertheless, they are working on a come back.

The electorate’s short memory and the weakness of their country’s institutions make a return plausible. In some cases, such as Garcia’s, the come back is more than a possibility.

As if this was not enough now Argentina also has a zombie plotting a return.

In a recent interview to Chilean newspaper El Mercurio, Carlos Menem said that he will run for president in the 2007 electoral race.

Menem’s reelection looks impossible today. So did Garcia's two years ago.

Garotinho to the Bench, for Now

2006-05-15T18:50:00.000-04:00

In Brazil the centrist Democratic Movement Party, or PMDB, voted against presenting a presidential candidate in October.

The decision was a defeat for Anthony Garothino, a former Rio de Janeiro governor with presidential aspirations. However, Garothino’s faction promised to try again next month during a party convention.

Garothino has consistently run as third in the polls. He is currently on a hunger strike to protest for what he calls political persecution by the media.

Observers consider President Lula chances to win in a first round would increase if Garothino doesn’t run.

Venezuelan Tyrant Stars Popular Video Game

2006-05-12T19:26:00.000-04:00

Mercenaries 2, the updated version of a best-selling video game produced by Pandemic Studios comes with a peculiar narrative structure: “A power-hungry tyrant messes with Venezuela's oil supply, sparking an invasion that turns the country into a warzone,” the promotional website states. But there is no need to worry: “For you, international crisis is all upside: You are a mercenary, and you profit from chaos”.

Mercenaries 2 characters include Mattias Nilsson. “a prodigiously gifted mercenary who makes his way in the world solving other people's problems with the skillful application of force.”

Lula and Evo to Talk Over Breakfast

2006-05-12T19:18:00.000-04:00

The presidents of Brazil and Bolivia will try to solve a recent feud during a breakfast scheduled this weekend in Vienna.

Brazil and Bolivia have been at odds since the nationalization of Bolivian gas. The crisis was intensified by recent comments made by Morales ruling out compensations for companies with seized assets, arguing that they were operating illegally in Bolivia.

Brazil's energy company Petrobras is heavily invested in Bolivia, a country that provides enoough gas to Brazil as to cause an energy crisis. President Lula is being heavily criticized by local media for his handling of this impasse.

Veja Ridicules Lula

2006-05-11T18:55:00.000-04:00

The latest issue of Veja (largest circulation magazine in Brazil with 1.2m), carries a cover picture of Lula with a boot print on his bottom alluding to Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez recent actions in Bolivia.

The headlines reads: “That one hurt.”

The subtitle elaborates: "Lula took a break on his role of “great leader” of Latin America just to find himself as a courtesan of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, who plotted the robbery of Brazil’s assets in Bolivia.”

The lead line marks the tone of a highly critical story: “Hugo Chavez and his Bolivian puppet, Evo Morales, kicked Brazil’s rear end. Before doing so, both asked patriarch Fidel Castro to bless their plans. None of these guys had the delicacy of inviting the Panalto Palace tenant [Lula], who considered himself as a regional leader. Poor Lula, he was the last one in known that president Morales would take over Brazil’s properties in Bolivia and put at risk the supply of gas.”

Veja is arguably the most influential printed medium in Brazil.

Garcia Widens Lead

2006-05-11T08:20:00.000-04:00

CPI, a Peruvian pollster, just published a survey giving a 23% to Alan Garcia in the presidential runoff. Here go the numbers:
-Alan Garcia: 61.4% of valid votes
-Ollanta Humala: 38.6% of valid votes

Other recent polls give Garcia a double digit lead namely:
-Apoyo gives him 57 against 43 (Published 05 May).
-Datum gives him 56 against 44 (Published 04 May).

Humala hasn’t been able to increase his popularity in the second round. The Garcia campaign has managed to link Humala to the Fujimori regime, rise doubts about his human right record and characterize him as a dictator in the making.

Judicial Scandal in Colombia

2006-05-11T08:17:00.000-04:00

Radio Caracol reported the resignation of Jorge Noguera Cotes, former DAS (Administrative Department of Security) director, as consul in Milan, after being called for questioning by the General Prosecutor Office. Noguera Cotes is being investigated for alleged electoral fraud in 2002.

The alleged fraud would have favored three current senators from the political front of the paramilitary movement (Bloque Norte de las AUC).

In mid April Radio Caracol website quoted President Uribe characterizing Norega Cotes as a honest and transparent man who, however, should go to jail if proven guilty.

Lula “Uncomfortable” with Chavez

2006-05-09T16:19:00.000-04:00

A quote from Brazil’s Foreign Affairs Minisiter, Celso Amorim’s, addressing congress and published by AFP:

“We have communicated to Chavez how uncomfortable we feel and also how uncomfortable President Lula feels with some of his actions”… “President Lula unequivocally expressed his unconformability to the point of saying that this [Chavez’s actions in Bolivia] is not only puting at risk the gas pipeline but also South America's integration”.

This is the first clear signal sent by the Brazilian administration of disgust with Venezuela.

Fox Says Not to Drugs

2006-05-05T00:23:00.000-04:00

Mexican President, Vicente Fox, just sent back for revision a bill decriminalizing illegal drugs. He made clear, under his administration no illegal drug will be decriminilized.

Apparently the U.S. put pressure on the Mexican executive and convinced Fox of halting the proposal.

It is not clear if the Presidential spokesperson was on drugs when he said to the Financial Times: “No way. There hasn't been any [American] pressure."

Humala Rejects Chavez

2006-05-04T19:01:00.000-04:00

Ollanta Humala changed radically his campaign strategy by marking distance
from Hugo Chavez.

The Peruvian Presidential candidate lamented Hugo Chavez´s interference in the Peruvian presidential race on a TV show: ¨I do deplore and reject this interference. I have nothing to do with President Chávez," he said.

And lament he should. Chavez recent threat to break relations with Peru in the event of a Garcia victory, has affected his chances in the runoff. A late April survey gave Alan Garcia an 08 point lead. Analyst expect the lead to have increased in the last few due to the ¨Chavez factor¨.

Being friends with Hugo Chavez used to be a campaign booster. Not any more, or at least that is not the way it is working in Mexico and Peru where the association with Venezuela´s president is affecting the campaigns of left wing candidates Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Ollanta Humala.

The Calderon and Garcia campaigns have leveraged nationalistic feelings and fears of political radicalization by associating Humala and Lopez Obrador with the Venezuelan President.

Chavez Vote Intention Hits 57%

2006-05-02T18:13:00.000-04:00

A recent survey by Venezuelan polling firm Keller y Asociados gives Hugo Chavez a Vote Intention of 57% and a popularity level of 63%. Here go the numbers:

If election day was Sunday, who would you vote for:
-Hugo Chavez: 57% (+8% variation from June)
-Opposition: 35% (-6% variation from June)
-Undecided: 8% (-2% variation from June)

Do you like President Chavez?
-I like him: 63% (+2% variation from June)
-I don’t like him: 24% (-4 variation from June)
-Not sure: 13% (+2 variation from June)

Presidential elections are scheduled for December. The lack of opposition leadership and the solid positioning Chavez is enjoying makes him virtually invincible.

Puerto Rico On Brink of Crisis

2006-05-02T18:02:00.000-04:00

And today’s Latin American collapsing country is Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico’s Government has literally run out of money and can’t pay salaries: “Government closed schools and suspended other nonessential public services on Monday after last-minute bargaining failed to yield a budget deal”, Reuters reported

The reason behind the budgetary crisis is all but a secret: Government
employs 30% of the island work force. Payroll represents more than 80% of government spending.

Since one out of three Puerto Ricans is employed by Government, the potential economic effect of a shut down would be devastating.

Observers expect the crisis to be solved in a matter of days. They reckon Government will resort to taxation and borrow money to keep going.

Hopefully this crisis will help the case for restructuring.

Mexico Decriminalizes Illegal Drugs

2006-04-29T13:52:00.000-04:00

Mexico's Senate, on a 53-26 vote, approved a bill decriminalizing possession of limited amounts of drugs including marijuana, ecstasy, cocaine, LSD, heroine and peyote. The bill, already approved by Congress only needs the final green light from the executive to become law.

Presidential spokesperson, Rubén Aguilar welcomed the news in an AP interview: "This law gives police and prosecutors better legal tools to combat drug crimes".

President Vicente Fox himself proposed the law in January 2004 and is widely expected to sign the bill.

The news is rising eyebrows in the U.S.

"Any law that would decriminalize dangerous drugs would not be helpful", said an Embassy spokespan.

San Diego’s Mayor Jerry Sanders called the bill “appallingly stupid.”

Cocaine Boom

2006-04-27T19:45:00.000-04:00

Legal and illegal production of coca leaf is booming in Latin America.

Evo Morales announced that Cuba and Venezuela committed to buy coca leaves produced in the Bolivian regions of Chapare and Yungas. The commitment resulted from negotiations of a trade agreement among the three countries branded Tratado de Comercio de los Pueblos (TCP), to be signed on 29 April.

On the illegal front, the latest data released by White House's Office of National Drug Control Policy states that coca production in Colombia increased by 24% in 2005.

Coca leaves are the base ingredient for the production of cocaine. It’s just natural to expect that with such a production increase, access to raw material for the production of cocaine will be facilitated.

We are on the verge of a cocaine boom in consumer markets such as the U.S. and the E.U.

Calderon Takes the Lead

2006-04-25T19:05:00.000-04:00

A recent survey published by Reforma, Mexico’s largest newspaper gives, for the first time, the lead in the presidential race to Felipe Calderon, from the ruling conservative party PAN.

Calderon is quickly gaining momentum whereas leftist contender Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is losing ground.

These are the numbers published by Reforma:

Felipe Calderon, PAN: 38% (7% increase from March)

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, PRD: 35% (6% decrease from
March)

Roberto Madrazo, PRI: 23% (2% decrease from March)

Calderon momentum has been linked to an advertising campaign comparing Lopez Obrador with Hugo Chavez. Election day is 02 July.

Brazilians in Teheran

2006-04-24T21:12:00.000-04:00

A Brazilian diplomatic delegation is in Teheran to discuss bilateral relations and the nuclear issue. The mission is led by Itamary chief of Middle East Affairs Sarkis Karminian and Minister Consellor Roberto Abdalla. A report by Correio Brazilliense states that the diplomats are to “make it clear that the Brazilian position has not changed since January when it supported the decision to take the Iran case before the UN Security Council (UNSC), which could possibly impose sanctions on the country.”

The only Latin American country backing Iran’s nuclear stance is Venezuela.

Neck to Neck

2006-04-18T17:42:00.000-04:00

Felipe Calderón from the ruling party PAN is gaining momentum at the end of the Mexican presidential race.

Just a month ago Mexican Presidential Candiate Andrés Manuel López Obrador looked unbeatable, with a 10% lead in the Mexican presidential race. However the latest edition of a monthly poll
published by national newspaper El Universal is showing a different picture. Here are the numbers:

-Andrés M. López Obrador, Alianza Por el Bien de Todos: 38% (42% in March).
-Felipe Calderón, National Action Party: 34% (32% in March).
-Roberto Madrazo, Institutional Revolutionary: 25% (24% in March).

Felipe Calderón is gaining momentum just when he needs it, two months prior to election day, whereas López Obrador is quickly losing ground. This trend heralds a dramatic finale.

The Road to a U.S.-Venezuela Breakup

2006-04-17T17:51:00.000-04:00

Hugo Chavez wants Venezuela to separate from the U.S., but breaking relations with a country that is your main revenue generator is not simple. That doesn’t mean that Venezuela is not setting the ground for an eventual breakup. There is evidence showing that Chavez may be moving faster than analysts think:

-The latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows Venezuela moving down from fourth to fifth place in the U.S. oil suppliers ranking. Venezuela is selling 182,000.00 barrels a day less to the US than a year ago, that is a 11% decrease.

-Venezuela is selling one of its U.S. based CITGO refineries for US$ 4.5bn. The refinery processes 268,000 barrels a day.

-Venezuela is aggressively investing in new refineries based in politically friendly markets. For instance, last week Cuba and Venezuela announced the reactivation of Cuba based Cienfuegos refinery.

-Venezuela has offered wide access to its oil reserves to energy thirsty China.

What is the earliest Venezuela can afford breaking relations with the U.S.?

An educated guess is early 2007, just after Chavez’s re-election. In that way he could radicalize his political project without a U.S. Ambassador making troubles at home.

However, Chavez is full of surprises. With US$ 25bn in his current account and US$ 21bn in foreign reserves he has enough cash for the country to afford a sabbatical. A breakup with the U.S. could generate political dividends for a leader skilled at leveraging Anti-Americanism. If Chavez is willing to use his piggy bank the breakup could happen anytime.

For Ramonet the End Justifies the Means

2006-04-14T16:00:00.000-04:00

The spin doctor and his old buddie the dictator. What's good for them is bad for the rest.

Ignacio Ramonet is a left wing intellectual fond of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. He made his reputation by criticizing mainstream media for manipulating news. His ideas are not particularly original but he is a good writer and has a legion of followers from the Anti-globalization camps.

Ramonet´s upcoming book “Fidel Castro: A Two-Voiced Biography”, is expected to become a best-seller, but a Spanish blogger may ruin its prospects. Arcadi Spada demonstrated that the text is doctored.

The book is being advertised as a rarity; one of only five books product of one-on-one conversations with Castro. However Spada realized that some fragments published by Spanish newspaper El Pais, were just reproductions of old speeches and documents, “a cut-and-paste operation”. That is a typical example of manipulation of news for ideological purposes. Ramonet did exactly what he criticizes mainstream media for.

This is not the first time Ramonet is caught experimenting with the ethical limits of journalism. Let’s quote a story by the Miami Herald:

“In 2002, Ramonet was involved in another flap when an article he purportedly wrote criticizing Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez appeared in a Caracas newspaper. Ramonet first denied writing the article and blasted the paper for publishing it without verifying it with him.

He later admitted writing it to illustrate the unreliability of the Venezuelan media, which had been highly critical of Chávez.”

I suppose the end justifies the means for Ramonet.

Old Vs. New Populism

2006-04-12T17:59:00.000-04:00

With almost 90% of votes counted for the first round of the Peruvian presidential elections, the general consensus is that the run off will be disputed between Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia.

Two things are for sure:

-The right has failed in Peru.

-Peru’s future is being contested between old and new populism.

Old populism is improvised, undecided and incompetent, and it is personified in Alan Garcia.

New populism is assertive, nationalist and authoritarian, and it is personified in Ollanta Humala.

Old populism has been a disaster for the country. Alan Garcia´s legacy was one of violence, isolationism, economic collapse and poverty.

New populism deserves the privilege of the doubt. After all it’s still a disaster to be discovered.

Untouched

2006-04-10T14:03:00.000-04:00

The corruption scandals that forced Brazilian Antonio Palocci to resign haven’t affected President Lula’s reputation at all.

A recent public opinion poll by Datafolha actually showed a slight increase in Lula’s actual lead over opposition contestant Geraldo Alckmin from PSDB party.

Lula’s advantage to Alckim rose from 19 to 20%. These are Datafolha's numbers for the first round:

President Lula from PT party: 40% (2 points less than last month).

Gerardo Alckmin from PSDB party: 23% (2 points less than last month).

Anthony Garotinho from PMDB party: 15% (3 points more than last month).

Indeed the story here is the rise of Anthony Garotinho who nevertheless, hasn’t got his party’s nomination yet and is fighting a tendency within his party not to nominate a candidate for these elections but instead establish a political alliance.

Garotinho is a charismatic former Governor of Rio de Janeiro who happens to be both, evangelical and leftist.

Resurrection Attempt

2006-04-10T13:56:00.000-04:00

The three North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries (Canada, Mexico and the US) have committed to focus their 2006 trade agenda in reactivating Free Trade of the Americas (FTAA) negotiations.

Colombia is also holding talks with more than thirty countries in an attempt to revamp prospects for the free trade area. At the same time the NAFTA countries and Colombia are using the Latin American Integration Association (ALADI) to set the ground for the FTAA. The idea is to reduce transaction costs between country members and consolidate existing trade agreements among ALADI countries.

Analysts foresee the establishment of a Mini-FTAA that would be limited to around 12 countries. A NAFTA-CAFTA-DR-Colombia-Chile trade block is a feasible option.

Diplomatic Soap Opera

2006-04-10T13:45:00.000-04:00

Venezuela’s President just starred the last episode of the Venezuela-US diplomatic soap opera in a live performance at his weekly TV show Aló Presidente.

“If you are going to continue with provocations, prepare your luggage, because I'm going to kick you out", President Chavez warned US Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield, referring to a situation at a sports complex where the diplomat was attacked by Chavez’s supporters after donating equipment to a baseball school.

Venezuela’s president described the episode as "provocation and demagoguery" and warned that if Washington takes diplomatic reprisals against Venezuela for the attack against Brownfield, he will declare him “persona non grata.”

Chavez’ response is a reaction to an earlier statement by Washington warning of "severe diplomatic consequences" if Brownfield’s security was compromised again.

Venezuela sells to the US roughly 15% of its total oil demand, which at the same time represent 60% of Venezuela’s oil exports. This interdependency makes it unlikely from both countries to severe the relationship.

Love and Interest

2006-04-04T21:58:00.001-04:00

Two unlikely weddings are hitting the headlines in Peru.

The first one involves Ultra-Conservative Lourdes Flores Nano. Regional media uncovered a peculiar stunt staged by the Peruvian presidential candidate. Aparently she planned to announce her wedding but to conceal the pretender's name. Then she would be "forced" to confess that the lucky one is no other than her country, Peru.

The stunt is a last resort to regain her lead just before election day. Thank God the stunt is a public affair and she will spare herself the embarrassment of a move that would look both tacky and desperate.

The second wedding is full of drama. Peru’s former President Alberto Fujimori just married Satomi Kataoka, his Japanese girlfriend. He signed the wedding papers from the Chilean cell where he awaits his extradition case verdict.

Mr. Fujimori faces corruption and human right violation charges in his native Peru. In a statement he referred to his wedding day “the happiest day of his life”.

Evomania Knows No Limits

2006-04-04T17:31:00.000-04:00

Evo Morales’s popularity hit a new high of 80% in the latest Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado poll published by national newspaper La Razón.

The survey was taken in Bolivia’s “central axis” which includes the cities of La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz. Morales’s popularity has increased constantly since
December 2005.

March was an active month for the Bolivian president. He managed to formalize establishment of a Constituent Assembly and a referendum on the autonomy of a region.

Morales’s first days in office mirror those of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, when his popularity reached unprecedented figures and a Constituent Assembly rewrote the contitution.

Third Billionaires of the Americas Summit

2006-03-31T21:34:00.000-05:00

Unlike traditional Summits this didn't offer the excitment of the demonstrations.

If you think that Anti-Summits are the last thing, you need to know that a group of Latin American magnates are taking the summit concept to a new level, with the introduction of a Billionaires of the Americas Summit.

Invitations for this event are exclusively extended to top regional moguls and their families. The summit includes guest speakers, roundtables and plenty of social activities.

The third edition just took place at the Alvear Palace Hotel in Buenos Aires. Former Spanish President Felipe Gonzalez was a guest speaker. Carlos Slim, Alejandro Bulgheroni and Jorge Gerdau entertained an audience of 200 with speeches on the private industry role. As expected they criticized the public sector and lambasted the evil of populism.

The summit’s first edition was hosted by Carlos Slim in Mexico City in 2003.

Brazil Goes XL

2006-03-31T21:22:00.000-05:00

Brazil is now officially the largest Latin American economy in terms of US$ gross domestic product (GDP).

The Government’s Statistics Bureau (IBGE) reported a GDP of US$797 billion for 2005. This ranks Brazil as the 10th largest economy in the world followed by Russia at number 11 and Mexico at number 12. The dramatic GDP increase is due to a 13% appreciation of the real.

Other figures released by the IBGE:

· The Brazilian economy expanded by 2.3% in 2005.
· Per Capita GDP rose 0.8% in local currency but a staggering 30% in US dollars to US$4,326.
· Gross fixed investment in 2005 equaled 19.9% of GDP, a bit more than the 19.6% recorded in 2004.

Palocci Capitulates

2006-03-28T18:06:00.000-05:00

Antonio Palocci achieved an impossible; he made of the left wing ruling party Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) a regional model of financial prudence and orthodox economics. Indeed, the markets responded negatively to his resignation to the Brazilian Finance Ministry.

Palocci´s capitulation was triggered by a corruption scandal involving illegal party finance. He is to be replaced Guido Mantega, the current president of the State development bank (BNDES).

With Palocci out of sight PT radicals could gain influence and jeopardize the economic stability achieved by the current administration.

Presidential elections are around the corner. These scandals will tempt incumbent candidate, Luis Inacio Lula Da Silva to become more of a populist and short term planner. If he falls victim to the temptation, Brazil, the largest South American economy will pay the consequences. There is nothing new under the sun.

Running Off

2006-03-27T19:25:00.000-05:00

Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe has lost six points in voter intention in a matter of eight months. Or at least that is what a survey commissioned by a series of Colombian media outlets and produced by Invamer Gallup says. Here go the numbers:

-Alvaro Uribe (Conservative Party): 64.1%
-Horacio Serpa (Liberal Party): 19.6%
-Carlos Gaviria (Former President, Democratic Independent Pole): 9.9%

The question is not whether Uribe will win, but when. A first round victory, a given fact eight months ago, is looking less likely.

Uribe is a free marketer with close ties to the US.

Preval Goes to Washington

2006-03-27T19:08:00.002-05:00

Newly Elected Haitian President Rene Preval is visiting the States this week.

The first stop is New York City to meet with Kofi Annnan.

The second stop is Washington to meet a group of Congressmen and then pay a visit to President Bush. IADB, IMF, OAS and World Bank meetings will follow.

Preval has been characterized as an ally of ousted leader Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Aristide’s relationship with the US was so bad he reckons he was deposed by a US sponsored coup.

Preval’s visit is an oportunity for the US to start in good terms with the new Haitian administration. With so little regional allies left this is not a chance to miss.

Presidential Infallibility

2006-03-24T21:45:00.000-05:00

Hugo Chavez wants to meet the Pope and is moving heaven and earth to do it.

His envoy to the Vatican, Iván Rincón Urdaneta, recently said that an audience could happen as early as spring time.

The Catholic church is the most trusted institution in Venezuela, with trustworthiness ratings consistently hitting 80%. It is also a pebble in Chavez’s shoes.

During a recent mass commemorating the day of the Divina Pastora virgin, one of the most revered catholic icons in Venezuela, Cardinal Castillo Lara lambasted the government in very unusual terms. He referred to Chavez as an “arbitrary despot” leading a “rotten political plan” to the instauration of a “dictatorship”. Castillo Lara got to the point of comparing Venezuela under Chavez with a "tragic peast lived 150 years ago".

An audience with the Pope would neutralize this kind of attacks and capitalize Venezuelans devotion.

Besides, Chavez wants to reform the constitution so he can stay in power for life, like the Pope. This could be an oportunity to also learn about canonic law and that peculiar concept: Papal infallibility.

Partisan Oil

2006-03-22T19:32:00.001-05:00

Leftists cut better deals than their right-wing counterparts, providing that they partner with Venezuela´s President Hugo Chavez.

Salvadorian party Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN)announced a deal with the Venezuelan government to buy refined fuel at preferential terms.

Under the agreement, cities managed by FMLN Majors will receive up to 100 thousand barrels of refined fuel at a discounted price of US$6 m, to be paid under favorable conditions: a first installment for 60% of the bill within 90 days from delivery, and a second in species (“agricultural products and other locally made goods”, if we are to believe the Mayor of Soyapango as quoted by Al Jazeera).

Salvador’s President, Antonio Saca, reacted to the news with skepticism, saying that the FMLN doesn’t count with the infrastructure to distribute the fuel.

This is the latest of a series of astute deals masterminded by Hugo Chavez, using oil as a political and public relations weapon.

The FMLN is a former guerrilla movement that became a political party after a peace treaty signed in the early nineties.

Low Morale

2006-03-21T22:14:00.001-05:00

The morale of the Brazilian army is low, judging from a report by Leonel Rocha published in Correio Brazilense. The recent suicides of two Generals, Urano Bacelar (Commander of the peacekeeping force in Haiti) and Luiz Alfredo Jeffe (Minas Gerais State army chief) have added to unprecedented levels of frustration in the military, due to low pay and lack of equipment.

“In the last six years, more than 600 have left the army, navy and air force, trading the uniform for a career in another sector of public service or in private enterprise. In just the first two months of this year, there were around 40 discharges. Nearly all have left the profession earlier than they should have in order to supplement their retirement by working in another area in the reserves,” reports Rocha.

This trend could affect the Brazilian dream of gaining a seat in the UN Security Council.

Friends Again

2006-03-21T22:13:00.000-05:00

Cuba and Panama have agreed to rebuild the diplomatic ties severed in 2004, after the Panamanian government pardoned four anti-Castro activists, including Luis Posada Carriles, who is also wanted by Venezuela for allegedly bombing a 1976 airliner.

The newly elected President of Panama, Martin Torrijos, has rebuilt relationships with the Cuban government in a matter of months. This move will increase the regional influence of Cuba.

Humala Gains Momentum

2006-03-21T21:55:00.000-05:00

OIlanta Humala rose the the first place in the Peruvian presidential race 20 days before the election. Here are the numbers produced by Apoyo Opinión y Mercado:
-Ollanta Humala: 32% (3 points more than a week earlier)
-Lourdes Flores: 28% (3 points less than a week earlier)
-Alan Garcia: 21% (1 point less than a week ealier)

In a runoff Humala and Flores would score 50%, however Humala candidacy is clearly gaining momentum whereas Flores's is losing ground.

Media have characterized Lourdes Flores as a free marketer, Ollanta Humala as a leftist with close ties to Venezuela’s Chavez and Alan Garcia as an ineffectual but charismatic former president.

On Brink of Crisis

2006-03-15T19:00:00.000-05:00

Ecuador’s Interior Minister Alfredo Castillo resigned after making controversial comments in support of mounting social unrest. A Castillo quote by Prensa Latina reads: "Amid all this chaos, the government has two choices: either join the nationwide silence that is imposed on all things, or simply quit".

Social unrest erupted after the negotiation of a free trade agreement with the US was announced by the executive. The protests have been led by indigenous groups calling for a referendum on the agreement. Protestors have blocked roads and demonstrated at the Presidential Palace.

Ecuador recently experienced two major oil industry strikes. Presidential elections are scheduled for October

The Contender

2006-03-15T18:44:00.000-05:00

Brazil’s main opposition party, PSDB, has finally picked a contender for the presidential race: São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin. He was nominated after Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra withdrew from the race. Alckmin, 53, is the current governor of São Paulo State. He studied but never practiced medicine, becoming instead a professional politician at age 19.

Alkmin has been depicted by media as a non charismatic but efficient free marketer. His campaign is expected to leverage a recent corruption case involving the ruling party (PT). Pre-nomination polls show him losing a runoff by 18 points to incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Election Day is October 1 with an eventual second round scheduled for October 29.

Invincible

2006-03-14T18:49:00.000-05:00

A recent survey commissioned by Mexican newspaper El Universal shows leftist Luis Manuel Lopez Obrador with a 10 point lead over his two contenders, Ernesto Calderon from ruling party PAN and Roberto Madrazo from Partido Revolutionario Institucional (PRI).

These are the numbers:

- Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD): 42%
- Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN): 32%
- Roberto Madrazo Pintado (PRI): 24%

And this is how the candidates reacted:

Lopez Obrador said it would be it very difficult for other candidates to reach him. Madrazo pointed out that the only day that counts is election day. A representative from Calderon´s party said he is sure
things will change from here to July.

Lopez Obrador´s victory would further shift the regional political balance to the left. Mexico is by far the largest Latin America economy. Election day is 02 July.

Sunken Submarines

2006-03-13T23:01:00.000-05:00

There are two contradictory reports circulating about the sell of French arms to Venezuela.

The first one, published by Spanish newspaper El País, says that French defense company Thales will produce weapons for eight patrol ships Venezuela is buying from Spain. The French company would charge US$275 m for the weapons, says the clip.

The second report comes from Strategy Page website. It says that French President Jacques Chirac turned down a Venezuelan bid to acquire two Scorpene diesel submarines valued in excess of US$ 1b. “Chirac is trying to rebuild relations with the U.S., but there's also serious concern about Venezuela's unstable President Hugo Chavez. French investments in Venezuela have been among those "foreign" interests threatened with "nationalization" by the Chavez regime,” explains the website.

If Strategy Page analysis was right France wouldn’t sale any weapons at all. To me, the submarine story sounds like a PR bluff to divert the attention while cashing a few hundred million.

A Second Presidenta?

2006-03-13T22:18:00.000-05:00

If the Peruvian Presidential run-off was today Lourdes Flores would become the second South American female president, says a poll produced by IMA firm. Flores would take 43.1% of the votes compared to 28.8% for Humala in a second round. If she was to face Alan García she would get 40.9% against 28.4%.

As for the first round, here are the figures released by IMA:

-Lourdes Flores: 26.9% (-0.3% less than January)
-Ollanta Humala: 21.6% (6.9% more than January)
-Alan García: 20.1% (2% more than January)

Elections are scheduled for April 09. Current trends indicate a narrow lead by Flores as the most likely outcome.

Media have characterized Lourdes Flores as a free marketer, Ollanta Humala as a leftist with close ties to Venezuela’s Chavez and Alan Garcia as an ineffectual but charismatic former president.

Honeymoon

2006-03-13T22:16:00.000-05:00

South America’s first female president, Michel Bachelet, inaugurated with the support of 65,3% of the Chilean population, says a poll published and produced by national newspaper El Mercurio. That is almost 12 points more than the 53,5% of votes that took her to the presidency. The survey also found that more than 85% of Chileans expect her to perform as well or better than her predecessor, Ricardo Lagos.

Socialist Class

2006-03-11T12:57:00.001-05:00

Fidel got a new toy, a US$ 55m luxury aircraft with drinks bar, leather seats, ergonomic furniture, DVD player, armored cockpit and even a special compartment to safely detonate bombs.

Cuba has close to 11.5 million inhabitants, so the individual contribution for the dictatorial jet comes to roughly US$ 5 per citizen.

No need to worry about inequality. Fidel got a second made in Russia Ilyushin jet to ferry workers to and from Venezuela, for a total bill of US$110m, increasing the individual contribution to US$ 10 a head.

Exemplary Punishment

2006-03-11T12:54:00.000-05:00

Since Hugo Chavez took over the presidency not a single Venezuelan had been charged for corruption. For seven years Government Prosecutors focused exclusively on political cases targeting opposition forces. Not even after President Chavez declared “Fight to Death to Corruption” in 2004 the Venezuelan courts went after the first Bolivarian corrupt.

That is why a recent announcement by a National Assembly Commission investigating a high profile corruption comes as a surprise, and a nice one for that matter. Nineteen people have been declared politically responsible for stealing close to US$ 1.5m from a publicly funded sugar can mill. This means that they won’t be able to hold a public office for the up to fifteen years. Charged parties include a former Minister and a General.

It is a good thing that finally the Chavez’s administration is moving from rhetoric to practice in this front. Still remains to be seen if the punishment will go beyond the symbolic and the guilty parties will spend time behind bars.

Good for Me, Bad for You

2006-03-09T21:05:00.000-05:00

Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chavez, has accused SUMATE, an opossition linked vote advocacy NGO, of treason for receiving US funds trough the National Endowment for Democracy. Indeed, SUMATE is literally facing treason charges brought by Government prosecutors. Its leaders could face up to sixteen years behind bars.

On the other hand Nelson Bocaranda, a Venezuelan journalist, just published a list of US based organizations that have received Venezuela’s funds. It is long, and it’s mostly formed by NGOs politically active in the US. Here it goes:

“Alliance For Global Justice, All-African People's Revolutionary Party, Artist's Network of the Americas, BendCondega Friendship Project, Bolivarian Circle-Oregon, Bolivarian Circle-Washington, DC; Campaign for Labor Rights, Cimarrones Capstone, Howard University Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (Cispes), Cuba Solidarity New York, FMLN-MD, Freedom Road Socialist Organization, Fight Back, Friends of the Third World, George Washington Univ. Progressive Students Union, Global Exchange, Global Women's Strike, Gray Panthers of Metro Washington, DC; Green Party of the US: Peace Action Committee, Hands Off Venezuela (HOV), Hermandad Mexicana Latinoamericana/MAPA, Howard University Student Association, Interconnect, International Action Center, International Socialist Organization (ISO), Iranian Cultural Association Inc., Latin American Solidarity Coalition (LASC), Latin American Students Assn, University of District of Columbia; Malcolm X Grassroots Movement, New Orleans; Marin Interfaith Task Force on the Americas, Maryknoll Office for Global Concerns, Metro Justice, National Lawyers Guild, National Network on Cuba, Nicaragua Network, No War on Cuba Movement, Ocean Press, Pan-African Roots, People's Hurricane Relief Fund, Philadelphia Cuba Solidarity Coalition, Quixote Center/Quest for Peace, Rochester (NY) Committee on Latin America, Rosewood I.C. Foundation, School of the Americas Watch, US Cuba Sister City Association (PA) and Young Socialists.”

Nuclear Dilemma

2006-03-09T18:29:00.000-05:00

Antonio Palocci, Brazil’s Finance Minister, denied claims given by his Science and Technology peer, Sergio Rezende, announcing a plan for the construction of up to seven nuclear power plants. But Palocci’s denial was not exactly definite. “There is absolutely no completed plan on this,” he said, adding that hydroelectric plants are cheaper and safer than nuclear reactors.

The scale of the project as announced by Rezende is unrealistic. Brazil has two active nuclear plants. A third one has been under construction for two decades. At that rhythm it would take the country about a century to hit Rezende’s number.

Pariah Nations

2006-03-08T18:34:00.000-05:00

The 2005 State Department Human Rights Report is out. Here goes the latest Western Hemisphere pariah list:

Cuba is accused of committing "numerous, serious abuses" including the imprisonment of more than 300 political activists.

Haiti is signaled for retribution killings and orchestrated abuses.

Honduras and Nicaragua are criticized for corruption and impunity.

The strongest criticisms go to Venezuela, accused, among other things, of unlawful killings and torture.

As usual, a country is excluded from the report: the US itself.

Evomania

2006-03-06T22:05:00.000-05:00

Evo Morales’s popularity is going through the roof. A recent poll conducted by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado is giving him a 79% approval rating. That is 5 points more than the 74% recorded in January by the same pollster.

The newly elected Bolivian President is capitalizing his popularity to move ahead with two projects, a Constituent Assembly and a referendum on the setting up of autonomous regions. An electoral process is scheduled for June 02 mixing the referendum with the selection of assembly members.

Evo knows where he wants to go and is moving quickly. Only when the constitution is rewritten we will know how far to the left Evo's project is.

The Mediator

2006-03-04T14:58:00.000-05:00

Two interesting quotes from a recent interview The Economist made to Brazil’s President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva:

The first one is about Chavez and Bush: “Chavez is convinced that a coup attempt against him was organized to benefit American interests. President Bush doesn’t accept that. This will be resolved only if they talk”.

The second is dedicated to Evo Morales, but also applies to his suggestion of a meeting between Chavez and Bush: “Between theory and practice there is a gulf bigger than the Atlantic Ocean”.

The Enemies of My Friends

2006-03-01T18:04:00.000-05:00

It's official, Colombian guerrillas would support Venezuela in the event of a US invasion:

“If there is an invasion by the US war hawks against the fraternal Venezuelan people, the FARC-EP would forcefully condemn it, and offer their unconditional solidarity with the Bolivarian process in the fatherland that saw the birth of our liberator. We are all united in Bolivar” said Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leader Raul Reyes to Anncol website.

A US invasion to Venezuela is, to say the least, very unlikely. With its current political capital the US administration couldn’t invade Lilliput. Bush’s approval rating is at 34%, and a recent survey shows that only 23% of US troops deployed in Irak believe they should stay until the job is done.

In a way, the prospect of a US military invasion to Venezuela is wishful thinking from the guerrillas: It gives meaning to their existence.

No Vacancy

2006-02-28T20:24:00.000-05:00

Mexico City officials finally closed the Sheraton Hotel that kicked out a Cuban delegation to comply with the Cuban embargo.

However Management of the Sheraton Maria Isabel is defying the order and says operations continue as normal.

This incident has become a major campaign theme. Mexican Presidential candidates have chanted outrage in chorus.

US officials have supported the hotel move. They reckon the Cuban embargo applies to American companies operating overseas.

Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez has declared to media that US law could not be applied in a third country.

By no complying with the order the Sheraton is just getting things worse with a display of arrogance that won’t be welcome in Mexico and can only affect America’s image.

Close Race

2006-02-27T22:34:00.001-05:00

The race is closing down a month before Peru's Presidential Election.

Leading candidate and free marketer Lourdes Flores recorded a 2% drop in just ten days.

Leftist candidate Ollanta Humala gained 1 point during the same period.

Former president Alan García recorded the largest rise with a 5% gain in ten days.

The numbers, produced by Apoyo, Opinión and Mercado pollster are as follows:

Flores 33%
Humala 26%
Alan García 22%

The actual news here is the dramatic increase of charismatic Alan García. His years in office are described by the BBC as "marked by hiperinflation, food queues, allegations of fraud and an upsurge in guerrilla violence."

Election is April 09, 2006. A run-off looks unavoidable.

Rice Eaters

2006-02-26T01:23:00.000-05:00

Condoleezza has a difficult trip scheduled for March the 11th. She is attending the inauguration of the first ever South American President, Chile’s Michelle Bachelet. Problem is she may not enjoy the company. Secretary of State will be hanging with regional presidents not exactly of her like, namely Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and Nelson Kirchner.

Expect her to spend time with Alvaro Uribe and do not be surprised if she tries to ignore Chavez at all costs, as W did in Viña Del Mar.

A Coming Wolf?

2006-02-26T00:53:00.000-05:00

Venezuela’s man in Washington, Bernardo Álvarez, just did it again. He hinted that oil supplies to the US could be halted if the diplomatic crisis escalates. This threat has become a theme in Chavez’s speech and a common place among Venezuela’s diplomats.

Is it possible? Can Venezuela cut oil supplies to the US?

Only if Chavez is willing to take an economic shock stronger than 2002's national strike.

During his congressional hearings, Thomas Shannon, US Undersecretary of State for Hemispheric Affairs, clearly articulated the dilemma :

"Venezuela in reality does not sell petroleum to the USA ... it sells it to itself."

Citgo, A Venezuelan oil company, buys Venezuelan oil to refine in US based Venezuela’s refineries. Then it sells the gas in Venezuelan Citgo gas stations. We are talking of roughly 1.4m barrels per day and close to 60% of Venezuela’s oil exports.

Chavez is a big gambler. He already survived a more difficult crisis, one that involved an internal enemy. An external enemy, he may think, would bring the country together.

Fox Taming

2006-02-25T17:00:00.000-05:00

The Mexican Supreme Court ordered President Fox to stop the broadcasting of TV spots promoting governmental social programs under the tagline: “If we stay the same way tomorrow’s Mexico will be better than yesterday’s”.

Although Vicente Fox is not running, the Supreme Court considered these ads would benefit ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon.

Recent opinion polls give leftist candidate Manuel Lopez Obrador a 5-9% lead over both, Felipe Calderón and Roberto Madrazo from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that governed Mexico for more than seventy years.

REUTERS reports these results from two different polls:

Milenio Diario’s (A newspaper) Survey:
-Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD): 36%
-Felipe Calderón (PAN): 31%
-Roberto Madrazo (PRI): 31%

Consulta Mitofsky Survey:
-Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD): 39%
-Felipe Calderón (PAN): 30%
-Roberto Madrazo (PRI): 28%

López Obrador has been characterized as a left-wing populist by media. Mexico is the largest Latin American economy. Election day is Sunday, July 2.

Understanding Chavez

2006-02-24T23:00:00.000-05:00

Here goes a quote from Venezuela’s Chief Prosecutor, Isaías Rodríguez explaining the psychology behind Chavez’s polemic proposal of indefinite reelection:

“President Chavez and I come from the llanos [Flat lands] and we have an Andalusian formation that makes us exaggerate so people can understand some things. Llaneros are exaggerated and that allows for a different communication than normal (…) It’s possible that this was just a llanero expression used by the President. It shouldn’t be seen as a threat. It’s just a way of telling things with a very personal language, a language that it’s not necessarily the language used by some people that read a specific political meaning in his comments and not the deep meaning from the colloquial llanero language.”

By the way, as Chief Prosecutor and in line with the separation of powers stated by the Venezuelan Constitution, Rodríguez's role is not to justify presidential delusions but to actually go after him if he dares to abuse power.

Per Secula Seculorum

2006-02-19T21:02:00.000-05:00

Two fresh proposals from Chavez:

-Make of Venezuela's presidential elections scheduled for December a plebiscite, if the opposition withdraws.

-Call a referendum to allow him to run for the presidency unlimited times. "Although I am not sure I can resist forever".

I won't get into the ethics of changing the constitution to have oneself reelected. I will also avoid arguing about the convenience of an eternal presidency. I won't even say that at this rhythm Venezuela's constitution will decree presidential infallibility. I will only ask why is he already in campaign? Isn't he popular enough? Doesn't he know it is illegal to do so 12 months before the elections and to use public means for proselytism?

Unlikely Partners

2006-02-17T23:00:00.000-05:00

Condoleezza Rice calling for a united international front against Venezuela doesn’t come as a surprise. The US-Venezuela confrontation has escalated from rhetoric to diplomatic in the last few weeks. But the hint that Brazil may join the “united front” and the lame Brazilian response to Rice’s comment is raising a few eyebrows.

Observers have long speculated of a potential separation between Brazil and Venezuela. Lula, they reckon, doesn’t entirely trust his neighbor and has tried to keep distance.

Let's be reasonable. What on earth could Lula get from the US now that he is finally leading the polls? His administration would only trade Venezuela with the US for something really, really huge such as, voila, a permanent seat in the UN security council.

Hold on. Brazilian interests in Venezuela are considerable. To break with Venezuela Lula would need a lot more than his long sought after security council seat. Well, perhaps the US is considering a more aggressive offer, like the opening of the market for Brazilian agricultural exports.

A seat in the security council and a new market for Brazilian orange juice would gain a lot of votes for Lula. Some would think than more than he would lose by separating from Chavez.

They say everything is possible.

Preval to Prevail

2006-02-15T22:53:00.000-05:00

A Brazilian official proposed a sensible way out to the Haitian electoral crisis: “It would be ideal if the candidates acknowledge to have lost and also recognize Preval’s victory”, reads a BBC quote from Marco Aurélio Garcia, a Brazilian representative to the UN mission overseeing the electoral process.

The head of the UN mission, US envoy Martin, also proposed a potential way out during an interview to the Argentine news agency Telam: "If the blank votes are not counted, Preval would have approximately 51 per cent, but that would mean changing the Electoral Law, and that does not seem appropriate since it could be seen as being done to favour one candidate over another."

The political future of Haiti is being negotiated amid public demostrations. The UN has an opportunity to put an end the the electoral crisis.

Long Live to Coca. Death to the Yankees

2006-02-11T23:03:00.000-05:00

Bolivia’s President addressed his nation in front of a banner that read: “Long Live to Coca. Death to the Yankees”.

With such a that tag line, you would think Mr. Morales would announce the total legalization of Coca, a measure that would, to say the least, anger the very same country he wants dead. But instead of legalizing it, Mr. Morales actually asked farmers to voluntarily control production and adhere to a coca “cato” established by the former administration; a system that limits coca production to the Capare region and establishes a 1.200 square meters top per planting family. Morales also asked farmers to control production by themselves.

Morales actually thinks that a controlled market for legal coca derivatives can be regulated by producers. That is like asking AT&T to regulate the telecommunications market. He forgets the actual reason why farmers resort to coca: price. Since it is used to produce an illegal substance the plant sells well in the black market. Opening a market limited to legal coca derivates will only increase pressure on price and production will boom even more in Bolivia, if regulation is voluntary, or elsewhere, if regulation is forced.

No doubt coca will live long. If Morales asks farmers to voluntarily regulate a legal market, it will probably live forever.

As for the Yankees dying, it will take a bit more than asking farmers to respect a system of quotas to “stop the U.S. talking badly about us."

It Ain't Over

2006-02-11T21:29:00.000-05:00

Rene Preval's lead in the Haitian presidential election is down 10 points to 50.2%, which means a second round is possible.

To gain in the first round Mr. Preval needs 50% of the votes.

Preval's supporters are calling it a fraud.

What yesterday looked like a smooth transition to a new administration with a clear mandate, it's looking now like a time bomb.

Prodigal Son

2006-02-10T07:29:00.000-05:00

Media are reporting a landslide by Rene Preval in the Haitian presidential race. Preval is described by as an ally of ousted leader Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

Aristide was deposed two years ago and has since accused the US of plotting his ousting. He is now in South Africa and will be allowed to come back as soon as the South Africans consider the situation stable enough.

Two things are for certain:

-If vote counting keeps its current trend Preval will be millionaire in political capital: 60% of the vote with levels of participation above 70%.

-Aristide will likely be a prodigal son for Haiti and the US will have to deal with other unfriendly leader.

We were too many and grandma gave birth, says a Spanish proverb.

Armed to the Teeth

2006-02-07T19:27:00.000-05:00

Beyond Latin America's left turn, there is a worrisome regional trend most analysts are overseeing: regional militarization.

A military build-up has taken place since the US lifted a ban to sale high-tech weapons in 2002.

Only in 2005 Colombia received close to US$ 643.3 million in American military and police aid.

Brazilian Air Force is investing heavily in modernization. Imports by the force increased by 177.5% in the first half of 2005 compared to the same period last year. That translates in US$ 34 billion in purchases for that period and a 20% increase from 2004. All due to the Brazilian Air Force Operational Recovery Program (PROFAB) implemented since 2002. Brazil already has the strongest regional air force.

Chile is buying 10 brand new F16 aircraft from the US and 18 second hand F16 from Holland for a total investment of US$745 million. Other ongoing Chilean acquisitions include two Spanish-French submarines, eight used Dutch-British war ships from Britain and 100 German Leopard tanks.

Venezuela is importing 100,000 Russian Kalashnikov assault rifles, and may import as any as 400,000 AK-47s. There are plans to buy up to 50 Russian MIG fighter aircraft. In addition, the regime is purchasing military hardware from Spain. Venezuela has also expressed interest in the development of nuclear energy for purely “peaceful purposes”. Some sales have been blocked by the US but Venezuela government will eventually get his military gear from other nations.

Sergey Svenchnikov, a representative from Russian state arms company Rosoboroneksport, put it this way in a recent visit to a weapons fair in Buenos Aires: "These countries' requirements for modern weapons are considerable. This is because the armed forces of most of the countries of this region intend to renew their armaments and military hardware in the very near future."

Falling Star

2006-02-03T18:26:00.000-05:00

Hugo Chavez’s vote intention is below 50% for the first time since 2004, reports a survey conducted by Venezuelan pollster Datanálisis. That is a dramatic fall from the 71.8% recorded last July by the same surveyor.

Chavez’s vote intention has roller coasted from 30% in July 2003 to almost 80% last year and is now below the 50s.

Other interesting numbers reported in the survey are:

Declared Chavistas are 43% of the population, 35% defined themselves as neutral and 15.5% as opposition.

Trust in Chavez is at 53% and distrust at 35.5%.

This survey confirms a trend first reported last January by DATOS, other local surveyor. DATOS measured trust on Chavez at 43% and gave his party Movimiento Quinta República a vote intention of 37.6%.

Chavez´s star is falling, but not fast enough to risk his office. Opposition is fragmented and alternative leadership is virtually nonexistent.

Persona Non Grata

2006-02-02T21:37:00.000-05:00

It was a big occasion. Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez Frias was to commemorate his seven years in government with a televised speech. It was a chance to tell his people about his revolutionary achievements. However, he chose instead to broadcast another episode of his anti-American soap opera.

In what was the most dramatic moment of his speech he announced to a frenzy audience that a US Military Attaché had been declared “persona non grata” and expelled from the country on the grounds of espionage.

“U.S. Navy Capitan John Correa must leave the country immediately” was the one line quoted by media all around the world.

As for the seventh anniversary, well, nobody remembers it now. Perhaps he meant so. There is no much to celebrate in Venezuela. Better to divert the attention and blame American imperialism for everything. After all, this little trick has long worked in Cuba.

Say Yes to Coca, Not to Cocaine

2006-01-28T22:25:00.000-05:00

That may be the tagline chosen by the brand new Bolivian Drug Tzar, Felipe Caceres, to promote his unorthodox policies.

Felipe Caceres is a contradiction, a Coca planter in charge of eradicating illegal drugs. His take on Coca is difficult to understand: To increase production for medicinal and ceremonial purposes, while decreasing production and use of cocaine.

To be fair, Washington’s anti drug policy is also based on contradictions. The focus on production eradication has backfired as an incentive for production itself: The more difficult an illegal drug is to obtain, the higher the margin.

Bolivia’s policy may not be that preposterous. There are precedents, like the one of poppy, a plant grown in controlled environments to produce opium based medicines. Indeed, this move could actually be a good thing, if it forces Washington to reconsider it’s anti-drug strategy.

However, beyond the drug war, there is something very telling about this peculiar appointment and Evo Morales's mind. This move heralds a radical politician, willing to take the initiative and surprise the enemy, like his mentor Hugo Chavez.

Girl Power

2006-01-27T19:43:00.000-05:00

If we are to believe a recent survey released by CPI, a Peruvian polling company, then conservative candidate Lourdes Flores is poised to become the second ever female president in South America, following the footsteps of Chilean President elect Michel Bachelet.

Flores' vote intention is of 28.8 %, 10 % ahead of nationalist leader Ollanta Humala who records a 18.2 percent. In the event of a runoff Flores would beat Humala 53 to 27%.

Previous surveys showed a statistical tie between Flores and Humala. Elections are scheduled for 09 April.

A Bad Reputation

2006-01-26T22:23:00.000-05:00

W has one thing in common with his hemispheric archrivals Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, a bad reputation in Spain. A recent survey by Spanish “Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas” asked more than 3000 Spaniards about global leaders. W got the worse mark with 2.15 out of 10; Castro got 2.37; and Chavez 3.12.

On the other hand Kofi Anan got the best mark with 5.97, followed by Brazil’s Lula with 5.14.

Temporary Modesty

2006-01-25T18:55:00.000-05:00

When President Chavez first took over the presidency, seven years ago, he promised to wave his salary and to donate a presidential house, La Guzmania, to the poor. “I can’t live like a king among paupers,” he said. Seven years later he has gained a reputation for his lavish lifestyle. He wears hand made shirts and posh watches, and only flies is his brand new A319 valued in US$60 m, socialist class of course. Indeed only in 2004 the Venezuelan President spent more than US$ 100K in laundry.

Now Evo Morales is showing to follow the footsteps of his mentor. He is so modest that he will only move to the presidential house under one condition, to have flatmates. The chosen ones are the presidents of all parliamentary chambers and the vice president, all of them single mates. By sharing the house they will be able to work round the clock 24 hours per day.

The question is not if this is a good or a bad idea, the question is how long will his modesty last?

A Latin NATO

2006-01-21T02:04:00.000-05:00

At a Presidential summit in Brasilia, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez made a proposal to his Argentine and Brazilian counterparts: The creation of a South American Defense Council, a South American NATO.

After the summit,however, Brazilian Minister of Foreign Relations, Celso Amorim, played down Venezuela's sugestion and denied any military alliance in the making .

Chavez has accused the US of planning to invade Venezuela. A military alliance with would difficult such a move. Analysts consider Chavez’s obsession with an American invasion as rhetorical. Chavez, they argue, wants to use Anti-Americanism like Castro, as a convenient pawn. Lula and Kirchner are not playing the same game, but they may change their minds: Kirchner has already resorted to anti-Americanism and Lula is craving for popularity before running for a secod term.

Bulletproof Fashion

2006-01-18T18:23:00.000-05:00

The latest trend in Latin American presidential fashion? Miguel Caballero’s anti-bullet cloth. Caballero's line of high-security cloth is proving popular among Latin American leaders. In an interview to the British daily The Guardian, the Colombian designer reported a yearly increase in sales from US$3 million in 2004 to US$7 million in 2005.

Customers include Colombia´s President Alvaro Uribe and Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chávez-Frias, who just ordered 50 items ranging from cotton vests to raincoats for his cabinet members. Indeed, Chavez's trademark red guayabera has the Caballero label.