Falling Star

Hugo Chavez’s vote intention is below 50% for the first time since 2004, reports a survey conducted by Venezuelan pollster Datanálisis. That is a dramatic fall from the 71.8% recorded last July by the same surveyor.

Chavez’s vote intention has roller coasted from 30% in July 2003 to almost 80% last year and is now below the 50s.

Other interesting numbers reported in the survey are:

Declared Chavistas are 43% of the population, 35% defined themselves as neutral and 15.5% as opposition.

Trust in Chavez is at 53% and distrust at 35.5%.

This survey confirms a trend first reported last January by DATOS, other local surveyor. DATOS measured trust on Chavez at 43% and gave his party Movimiento Quinta República a vote intention of 37.6%.

Chavez´s star is falling, but not fast enough to risk his office. Opposition is fragmented and alternative leadership is virtually nonexistent.