Unlikely Partners
Condoleezza Rice calling for a united international front against Venezuela doesn’t come as a surprise. The US-Venezuela confrontation has escalated from rhetoric to diplomatic in the last few weeks. But the hint that Brazil may join the “united front” and the lame Brazilian response to Rice’s comment is raising a few eyebrows.
Observers have long speculated of a potential separation between Brazil and Venezuela. Lula, they reckon, doesn’t entirely trust his neighbor and has tried to keep distance.
Let's be reasonable. What on earth could Lula get from the US now that he is finally leading the polls? His administration would only trade Venezuela with the US for something really, really huge such as, voila, a permanent seat in the UN security council.
Hold on. Brazilian interests in Venezuela are considerable. To break with Venezuela Lula would need a lot more than his long sought after security council seat. Well, perhaps the US is considering a more aggressive offer, like the opening of the market for Brazilian agricultural exports.
A seat in the security council and a new market for Brazilian orange juice would gain a lot of votes for Lula. Some would think than more than he would lose by separating from Chavez.
They say everything is possible.
posted by Camilo Pino @ 2/17/2006
6 comments
6 Comments:
"Condoleezza Rice calling for a united international front against Venezuela doesn't come as a surprise. The US-Venezuela confrontation has escalated from rhetoric to diplomatic in the last few weeks. But the hint that Brazil may join the 'united front' and the lame Brazilian response to Rice's comment is raising a few eyebrows."
What exactly was "lame" about Brazil's response? Why would anybody in their right mind side with Condosleezza against Chávez?
The only eyebrows that have been raised are of those who cling to fairy tales that the United States can somehow isolate Venezuela. Sorry, buddy, ain't gonna happen. Chavez's influence in the region is on the rise, not on the decline.
But keep on clinging to the fairy tales, if it makes you feel better. Meanwhile, the only power in the region that will increasingly isolate itself is the United States.
Brazil didn't deny Rice's comments. They assigned a minor officer to respond with a reactive statement. Amorim wasn't even available for comments.
A seat in the UN Security Council is the one thing Lula has wanted the most since he took over.
If Brazil releases a denial from a top officer then they would send a different message. That hasn't happened yet.
Brazil has a lot of interests in Venezuela. Breaking with Chavez comes with a billionaire price tag. But Security Council seat and market for oranges are major words in Brazil.
The States are isolated. I am sure they are offering all they have. They may still be in the position of bargaining a compromise.
There is a recent precedent of a similar pact. Brazil took part of the "Grupo de Amigos de Venezuela" founded by the US that made Chavez call a referendum.
"There is a recent precedent of a similar pact. Brazil took part of the 'Grupo de Amigos de Venezuela' founded by the US that made Chavez call a referendum."
No, the Group of Friends did not make Chávez call a referendum. The referendum process is enshrined in the Venezuelan constitution; the referendum went forward because the CNE ultimately found that the opposition gathered enough signatures to trigger the referendum. Insofar as there was pressure on the CNE from the "Group of Friends," it came from other countries in the group, not Brazil. Brazil always stressed that the "Group of Friends" needed to respect Venezuela's sovereignty. Brazil has been very consistent on this. If anything, relations between Chávez and Lula have grown stronger since 2003, and the strength of the relationship is consistently reflected in the Brazilian government's statements.
This isn't to say that Lula doesn't cut deals (as he did on Haiti), but the Brazilian government won't turn around and stab Chávez in the back. That's just wishful thinking on your part, Camilo.
If any left-of-center president were to criticize Chavez, it would more likely be Bachelet.
Actually, Chile's response was very clear. Lagos himself released a strong denial:
http://english.eluniversal.com/2006/02/17/en_pol_art_17A674339.shtml
In contrast Brazil’s response makes me think they are listening to offers, which doesn’t mean they would take them.
My speculation is simple: The US is offering heaven an earth to Brazil and the country is listening.
What would you do if you were on Rice's shoes?
"My speculation is simple: The US is offering heaven an earth to Brazil and the country is listening."
In no less than a month, you'll see that your speculation is wrong. First of all, having a UN security council seat is not "heaven on earth." Brazil's favelas wouldn't just suddenly disappear if that were to happen. Secondly, it's not very likely that the United States is offering that in the first place. Thirdly, even if it were making such an offer, there are four other permanent members on the U.N. security council whose opinions also matter, in addition to other contenders for a permanent seat on the security council, including India. In sum, no one state --even the United States-- could make an offer that is credible to Brazil.
"What would you do if you were on Rice's shoes?"
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Venezuela represents no national security threat to the United States whatsoever. It is a sovereign democratic country, with a president who has a solid democratic mandate to govern the country. In short, Venezuela's business is Venezuela's business, not Uncle Sam's business.
I meant Rice's shoes, not Justin's.
Time will tell about this one, and it is a long shot but you never know, it may hit the target.
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