Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Who Won Mexico’s Presidential Debate?

The question matters, considering that the latest surveys put the two leading candidates on a technical tie.

Surveys conducted by printed media say Felipe Calderón won the final presidential debate. However, these surveys come with a spin. Most media groups in Mexico tend to support Calderon’s candidacy.

I had a chance to watch the debate and didn’t see a clear winner at all. I found Calderón slightly more convincing than López Obrador, but not to the level needed to swing PRI and undecided votes. Indeed, both leading candidates did a good job. They neutralized attacks efficiently and stuck to message. I think the debate won’t make a big difference. If anything, it will reinforce already taken decisions.

Post-debate surveys published so far follow:

Reforma newspaper, Mexico’s largest circulation broadsheet, asked four hundred people who won the final presidential debate. The results of this "4.8% error margin" survey are:

-Felipe Calderón from government party PAN: 44%.
-Luis Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)from left wing PRD party: 30%
-Roberto Madrazo from PRI party: 11%.

El Economista newspaper produced a similar survey obtaining these results:
-Calderón: 66%.
-AMLO: 19%
-Madrazo: 9%

La Crónica newspaper also got Calderó leading its survey:
-Calderón: 42%.
-AMLO: 29%.

Excelsior newspaper surveyed 300 people and asked them who would they vote for after the watching the debate. The results give a slight lead to Calderón with 37% against 32 % for AMLO.

Election day is 02 July.


At 9:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man, all research gives Calderon as winner. What else do you need to believe the left won't win in Mexico?
It's not bad just because it's good.

At 10:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wishful thinking. AMLO already won.

At 11:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mexico, Lopez Obrador Leading Polls

Mexico, Jun 7 (Prensa Latina) Most Mexicans believe today that former Federal District Gov. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will be a better president than the rest of the candidates, following the second and last debate among them.

The opinion was gathered from a telephone survey conducted by “El cristal con que se mira” news, with an unprecedented participation of 41,300 viewers.

On the question which candidates has a better image for president?, 71 percent supported Lopez Obrador, of the Por el bien de todos coalition, well ahead of governing PAN (Accion Nacional) party´s Felipe Calderon (21 percent), and Roberto Madrazo, of Alianza por Mexico, with six percent.

The last debate among presidential candidates was given great coverage by local newspapers, saying that Lopez Obrador and Calderon took the leading roles.

“Commercial fair, a duel of two,” published Milenio daily; “No debate”, wrote La Jornada and “Calderon hits, but no knock down (Lopez Obrador)”, according to the Excelsior.

At 7:33 AM, Blogger ERASMO said...

AMLO was weak. He is lier and you can tell. His debate performance was dreadful and as you noticed surveys say so. The prensa latina article is biased. Claderón para todos.

At 4:32 PM, Blogger FeathersMcGraw said...

Camilo, the mexican elections won't hold primaries for the 2 candidates with most votes?

At 7:26 PM, Blogger Camilo Pino said...

There is no run-off in Mexico. Whoever gets the most votes wins.

At 5:44 AM, Blogger Justin Delacour said...

The results of the newspaper polls vary greatly, which indicates that those polls weren't carried out scientifically. In other words, it doesn't appear that each paper was polling a representative cross-section of Mexican society. If they all had done so, the results wouldn't vary so greatly.

At 2:30 PM, Blogger FeathersMcGraw said...

Related to the subject and very interesting reading:

At 12:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


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