Monday, July 31, 2006

Kirchner’s Popularity at 75%

Infobae newspaper reports a recent survey produced by four Argentine firms: Analogías, CEOP, Hugo Haime and OPSN, showing President Kirchner with a staggering approval level of 75%.

The survey also shows Kirchner wining the presidential elections in the first round with 60% of votes. In the event of an unlikely run-off Kirchner would beat Cristina Fernández with 59,8% of votes.

Presidential elections are scheduled for October 27 2007.

Monday, July 24, 2006

FARC Offer Support to Chavez

Once again Colombian guerrillas made public their total support to Chavez in the event of a US invasion. This solidarity gesture was communicated in a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) message praising Venezuela’s Communist Party for its XII Congress.

“Your role [Venezuela’s Communist Party ] in driving the process led by the Commandant Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias, in this era in which a new revolutionary wage rises in our America, is huge.”… “Count on us if the Washington hawks wage an invasion war against the brave people of Venezuela, which is the hope of America and its revolution,” says the apologetic communiqué.

Heralding a US invasion to Venezuela is just a way for the FARC to justify its existence in a world where Evo Morales and Hugo Chavez got to power via electoral processes. Everyone knows that. What amazes me is that some people take seriously the prospect of the US invasion knowing that:

-After the Irak mess the US couldn’t even invade Neverland.
-Venezuela is not at the top of the American international agenda (Lebanon, Irak, Iran and Korea are obviously a priority).
-Bush’s popularity is in the thirties.
-The oil price is too high to risk a war with an Opec country.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Lula’s Lead Narrows

A survey produced by Vox Populi for Carta Capital
magazine shows a 10% lead for Brazil’s President Inacio Lula da Silva (Workers Party, PT) in the vote intention over conservative candidate Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social Democratic Party, PSDB). Here go the numbers:

-Lula 42% vote intention (-3% variation from June/-7% from May).
-Alckim 32% vote intention ( 0% variation from June/+9% from May).

This is the first poll not showing Lula wining in the first round. Presidential elections are scheduled for October 01. A run-off would take place on October 29. To avoid a second round a candidate needs more than 50% of votes.

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Brazil Rejects Mercosur Military Bloc

A report published by Correio Braziliense states that “Brazil has taken a step back in talks with neighbouring countries over the creation of a South American Defence Council”, a NATO like bloc recently proposed by Hugo Chavez.

The bloc creation is on the agenda of the ministerial meeting scheduled for this week in Bogotá, however, the Brazilian newspaper quotes a Ministry of Defense officer declaring the matter as closed and making it clear that Brazil wouldn’t join such a bloc. “We received intelligence that this 'NATO of the South' thing was being espoused by the United States, so that it could be manipulated by the latter against sub-regional threats" says Correio's source.

Thursday, July 06, 2006

38% of Bolivians Support Chavez’s Intervention

A recent survey by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado states that 51% of Bolivians consider that Chavez “intervenes” on national affaires. 48% rejects Chavez’s intervention whereas 38% supports it.

I would think that 38% is an unusually large figure for any foreign politician meddling in national affairs anywhere in the world.

Mercosur and Cuba Could Sign Trade Agreement

Cuba and Mercosur wil sign a trade agreement at the end of July, says a Correio Braziliense report. A Cuban delegation has been working with Mercosur to “harmonize four Economic Complementation Agreements that have been in effect since the end of the 1990s between the Fidel Castro regime and the Southern Cone Partners”, states the article. This step will “facilitate the negotiation of a future free trade treaty with Cuba” and undisclosed Brazilian diplomat said to the Brazilian newspaper.