Halt

Need to put the blog on a halt for an indefinite period.

Fresh Survey Numbers from Venezuela

A survey by PS&B Associates gives Hugo Chavez a vote intention of 50% against 37% for main contender Manuel Rosales.

However, similar research conducted by local firms IVAD and Datanalisis give Chavez a vote intention of 76.9 and 58.2% respectively.

Distance between Chavez and his contender is reducing but not to the level needed by Rosales. Elections are scheduled for December.

Who will yell louder, AMLO or Fox?

President Fox will not lead Mexico’s Independence Day ceremony from the traditional setting of El Zocalo square, in Mexico City. Instead, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the leftist presidential candidate who hasn’t accepted the formal results of the recent electoral process will perform his own “Grito de Dolores” ceremony at El Zocalo.

The Senate asked Fox to move the ceremony out of El Zocalo to avoid violence. This will likely make look the executive weak and might inject badly needed momentum to AMLO’s resistance. It will all depend on the media coverage and the way both leaders and president elect Calderon, spin the events.

The ceremony is scheduled for September 15. Fox will have his at Dolores Hidalgo, Guanajuato.

Ahmadinejad Goes to Caracas

The Iran-Venezuela alliance is getting stronger.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is steping in Caracas and Habana next week, on his way to New York to attend a United Nations General Assembly.

The visit will generate plenty of media coverage amid rumors of a Venezuela-Iran nuclear alliance. It will also work marvels for Hugo Chavez’s presidential campaign, which is full of Anti-American rhetoric.

Ahmadinejad may even surprise us with another Granma photo op having a great time at the hospital with Fidel.

Venezuela Extracts Uranium, Says Colombian Ambassador

Camilo Ospina is not a career diplomat. Whether this was a slip of the tongue or an intentional accusation, get ready for a new series of rebuttals and reactions. If proven, these allegations will radically change regional dynamics.

Colombia’s OAS Ambassador, Camilo Ospina, accused Venezuela of having an undercover operation to extract uranium. El Universal from Venezuela and El Nuevo Herald from Miami carry the story. Here goes a quick translation of Ospina’s comments as published by these outlets:

“You just have to go in direction to the Arauca, some 400 kilometers, to find two factories, a bicycle factory, and a motorcycle factory. These two factories are a façade to excavate uranium” … “Venezuela can’t enrich uranium, but Iran can. If this happens we will have a real problem.”

Speculation about a secret Venezuelan operation to provide Iran with uranium has been rampant. This is however the first time that a high level officer from any country makes a direct accusation.

Expect a loud rebuttal from the Venezuelan governement. Chavez himself may comment on this. This is a great oportunity for him to play his beloved anti yankee role.

Brazil Buys 12 Mirage Fighthers

Brazil will buy 12 used Mirage 2000 aircrafts from the French army for US$100m. A modest investment if compared with the recent acquisitions made by the air forces of neighboring countries Chile and Venezuela, that just acquired fleets of 10 F-16 Block 50 and 24 Su-30MKII fighters respectively.

The first two Mirages will arrive to Brazil on time for the independence day parade on September the 7th. Military analysts consider the Mirage fleet obsolete and think that Brazil is losing air power to Chile and Venezuela.

Venezuela To Build Two Military Facilities in Bolivia

Venezuela pledged to fund and supervise the construction of at least two Bolivian military facilities as a part of a defense agreement. The direct Venezuelan investment will be of at least US$ 40 million. The agreement also prevents staff support in matters of military legislation and “military armament improvements” says a an EFE cable.

The fort will be built in the Riberalta region in the Amazon jungle.

The announcement was originally made by Orlando Paniagua, Defense Vice Minister. He also made it clear: Venezuela is just helping and in no way intervening in Bolivia’s sovereignty.

As for what is Bolivia doing for Venezuela's army, well. Mr. Paniagua didn't mention that bit. Must be clasified.

Lula Is Not Like Chavez and Castro Won’t Be Absolved

Lula is marking distance from his Venezuelan and Cuban colleagues. With the
presidential elections scheduled for October, he wants to avoid the “Chavez
factor” and position himself as a centrist. The strategy is working. A
recent survey by Dalafolha gives the incumbent candidate a 49% of vote intention versus 25% for conservative candidate Geraldo Alckmin.

Here goes Lula’s quote taken from O Globo and
translated by Venezuela’s El Universal:

“They do not know what to fabricate and here they go with that story of Chavezism. I will not engage in any Chavezism; firstly, because I am not Chávez, and secondly, because this country is not Venezuela. This is a country with traditional institutions”.

O Globo also quoted Lula paraphrasing the famous Castro quote: “History won’t absolve Castro”.

I Am Taking a Break

Planning to be back by August the 20th.