Saturday, August 27, 2005

Autumn 2006, a Scenario

Evo Morales is heading a constitutional assembly. A failed right wing coup led the country to chaos. He seized the opportunity. Assembly members are considering defining Bolivia a socialist country.

Honeymoon in Mexico. Just inaugurated President Lopez Obrador has a popularity of 85%. He is talking less like the “centrist” who won the elections. Lopez Obrador wants NAFTA workers to have the right to work in any member country. If it doesn’t happen Mexico can always tax maquilas or make public demonstrations at the border: “Millions of Mexicans could march and there will be no fence anymore”.

Uribe managed to amend the constitution and won the presidency with a solid 72%. Colombian Guerrillas and Narcos have gone urban. They are blowing buildings and targeting civilians. The government is trying to demonstrate a FARC Al Qaeda link.

Chavez is ready for another electoral landslide. He is the de facto leader of the “axis of good” that now includes Lopez Obrador. The oil barrel is trading in the eighties.

Guatemala has unilaterally resigned to CAFTA and Nicaragua may go the same way.

Lula is having a second chance. His popularity is back to the low sixties. He is slowly abandoning his orthodox policies and going populist. Brazil and Venezuela are cooking a military alliance.

Kirchner’s popularity is falling and the radical left is gaining space. Piqueteros demonstrations affect every corner of the country.

American support to the Irak war has faded to a pitiful 30%.


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